14 Nov Tasmania – here come the mainlanders

Welcome to Tasmania, where the majority of the 29 Local Government Areas (LGAs) have experienced growth over the past decade. Annual population growth since 2017 has been unprecedented. While the ‘Apple Isle’ has pipped growth projections, it raises concerns around supporting the increased demand for housing, jobs and infrastructure.

The five-year period between 2017 and 2021, saw more than 9,000 new residents per annum in Tasmania. The peak in population growth occurred during 2018 (+10,529 residents) and 2019 (+10,550) (https://remplan.co/47iDAA0). However, there may be relief in sight, as the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows the state’s population increased by around one-third of the peak with 3,774 new residents.

The Tasmanian Government launched its first Population Growth Strategy (the strategy) in 2015, setting an ambitious goal to increase Tasmania’s population to 650,000 by the year 2050.

Tasmania’s current population has far exceeded the ABS’ ‘Population Projections by Region 2017-2066’ estimates. The target of 570,000 people for 2030 was recorded in 2022, eight years ahead of the state objective. The higher than projected growth has impacted the government’s strategies and plans for housing demand, services, programs, and infrastructure needs.

Housing market assessments

REMPLAN was engaged by regional organisations, with funding from the State Planning Office to undertake a housing market assessment, a whole of region residential land supply audit, and population and housing forecasts to understand the demand for residential housing.

The outcomes of these projects will be one of several key inputs into the update of the respective regional land use strategies, the core policy documents for settlement-based land use planning.

A major component of the Forecast and Demand assessment was the preparation of detailed population and housing forecasts at a small area level.

REMPLAN’s forecasts apply a ground up approach for each of the Local Government Areas (LGAs) which consider adopted plans and policies, land supply assessments and localised knowledge provided by clients. REMPLAN also takes into account broader considerations for the State as a whole, particularly around migration, as well as a view on the National outlook to ensure context at the LGA level.

Supporting governments to understand future growth and demand for infrastructure and services such as transport, schools, healthcare, housing, and recreation facilities, REMPLAN forecasts are delivered via a staff access login software and public-access forecast profiles.

Residential Land Growth Monitor

Building on the Tasmanian experience, REMPLAN has developed the Residential Land Growth Monitor (RLGM) which utilises a standardised approach to assist other clients across Australia. A key element of the RLGM is the repeatability and regularity of reporting which is becoming an increasingly important consideration for local governments. REMPLAN’s unique capabilities in land use planning, data science, and software development enabled us to codify the process of land supply assessment, greatly minimising the resources required as part of normal land supply assessments.

The RLGM is available to REMPLAN clients, allowing contemporaneous insights and a regular monitoring tool to understand issues relating to residential development. Residential land demand and supply assessments provide a valuable input forming a critical component into the development of planning area level population forecasts.   

Interested in a residential land demand and supply assessment for your area? –  Please contact us

Through the updated Population Strategy, the Tasmanian Government is focusing on improving liveability, reducing barriers to having and raising children, aligning emerging employment opportunities, and managing an aging population. The vision for Tasmania is to be the best place in the country to live, work, invest and raise a family.

Councils across the State can access REMPLAN Forecast, REMPLAN Community, and REMPLAN Economy providing a powerful suite of data. These tools enable and support sound resource-based decisions and the formation of strong local polices to complement the new Tasmanian planning schemes.